CPU vs. Transistors

In this project we are going to compare the difference between using a quadratic function and an exponential function to predict the number of transistors in a computer. The table below gives the name of the CPU, the date it was first issued, and the number of transistors in that computer.

Let x = 0 for the year 1971 and have a statistical package or a graphing calculator make a scatterplot with the number of years since 1971 being the independent variable and the number of transistors in a computer x years after 1971 for the dependent variable.

Using a statistical package or a graphing calculator fit a quadratic equation to this data set.

Using this quadratic equation, predict the number of transistors in a computer released for next year and for a computer released in the year 2052.


CPU

Date

No. of transistors

4004

11/15/71

2,300

8008

4/72

3,500

8080

4/74

6,000

8086

6/8/78

29,000

80286

2/82

134,000

Intel 386DX

10/17/85

275,000

Intel 486DX

4/10/89

1,200,000

Intel DX2

3/3/92

1,200,000

Pentium

3/22/93

3,100,000

Pentium Pro

11/1/95

5,500,000

Pentium II

5/7/97

7,500,000

Pentium III

 

24,000,000

Pentium IV

12/00

42,000,000

CPU vs. Number of transistors

With a statistical package or a graphing calculator fit an equation of the form ln y = . . . .

Rewrite this equation using properties of exponents so it is of the form y = . . . .

Use this equation to predict the number of transistors in a computer released in the next year and for a computer released in the year 2052.

Compare your quadratic predictions with your exponential predictions. Which equation do you think gives the better predictions, the quadratic or exponential? Explain.